Movies and Novels are a hit-driven business because they inhabit a mature market, which is hyper-saturated with competitive offers. Therefore, only those who offer something different (often spectacular), that resonates with the particular cultural pulse, succeed.
Our simulations will compete with all those products, but not directly. The proposition of being the active protagonist of a work of fiction or living an exciting alternative life is a huge advance over linear media, and a different proposition than traditional games, and if marketed right it will give us an edge over the competition; an advantage not to one single title, but to the whole category! And once users play it, they'll come back for more. There are no other experiences like it.
As long as we keep a level of quality in our work, most products we release are going to be successful. In fifteen years, maybe we will have evolved into the same hyper-competitive environment. But that gives us plenty of time to prepare.